Sudan crisis: Activists achieve ‘big win’ over generals

Sudanese men and women celebrate outside the Friendship Hall in the capital Khartoum where generals and protest leaders signed a historic transitional constitution meant to pave the way for civilian rule in Sudan, on August 17, 2019.
Sudan’s pro-democracy movement has achieved its biggest victory – getting the junta to agree to a civilian government.

The Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) have hammered out a deal with the generals who took power after the fall of long-serving ruler Omar al-Bashir.They have agreed to a 39-month transitional period. During this time, Sudan’s ultimate authority will be a Sovereign Council of five civilians and five generals, with an eleventh member to chair it – initially a soldier, later a civilian.

A technocratic government is being set up and an interim national assembly appointed.

Negotiating the power-sharing formula was hard enough – solving Sudan’s deep-seated political and economic problems is going to be harder still.Newly-appointed Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is under no illusions about the challenge he faces.

He is not a politician. He is an economist, a technocrat who has spent the last decades in the African Development Bank and the UN Economic Commission for Africa.Member of Sudan’s ‘sovereign council’ Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok will have to keep the military on his side.Over the coming days he is expected to appoint a cabinet of similarly impartial and competent technocrats.In a speech after taking office, Mr Hamdok identified his two priorities – the economy and peace.

Sudan is deep in economic crisis. The protesters who brought down Mr Bashir took to the streets in December because the cost of living had become too high.People relying on salaries could no longer afford bread; traders and farmers couldn’t buy fuel; banks and ATMs were rationing paltry amounts of cash.Inflation and shortages have a long-term effect on government debt, which is already enormous – over $50bn, more than 60% of gross domestic product.

And Sudan is experiencing a chronic foreign exchange shortage, after the loss of most of its oilfields when the south seceded in 2011.Sudan missed out on the Jubilee 2000 campaign to cancel the debt of poor nations because it was under UN sanctions for human rights abuses, and US financial sanctions for a “state sponsor of terrorism” after the Bashir regime harboured killed al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden between 1991 and 1996.Other highly-indebted countries have taken years to negotiate debt forgiveness – the Hamdok administration will need to do this in just a few month if the government is to obtain the funds it needs turn around the current macroeconomic crisis.

He has goodwill on his side. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have bankrolled the Sudanese generals.However, they will need to switch from cash handouts and gifts of food, fuel and medicine to supporting a coordinated plan for restoring Sudan to the good graces of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.In an interview with Reuters news agency, Mr Hamdok said he had already started talks with the two bodies to discuss restructuring Sudan’s crippling debt.