Pakistan’s Melting Glaciers Pose Grave Risk to Water Security and Livelihoods

Farhan Latif

Islamabad: Pakistan is increasingly on the global radar for climate-related disasters, and one of the most pressing challenges is the rapid melting of glaciers. Scientists warn that this phenomenon is expected to pose severe threats to the environment, economy, and population within the next three to five years.

Glaciers in the Himalayan, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush ranges are now melting 65 percent faster than before, placing nearly two million people at risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). With approximately 15,000 square kilometres of glaciated terrain—home to an estimated 7,000 glaciers—Pakistan hosts the largest concentration of glaciers outside the polar regions, primarily in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The retreat of these glaciers jeopardises Pakistan’s water supply, particularly as they feed the Indus River system that sustains agriculture and millions of livelihoods. The massive ice reserves act as natural water reservoirs, but their rapid depletion is undermining water security, agricultural productivity, and ecological balance in vulnerable regions.

Government research on scaling up GLOF risk reduction has revealed that more than 3,000 glacial lakes have developed in Gilgit-Baltistan and KP, of which 33 are considered highly prone to sudden outburst flooding. Over 7.1 million people living in these areas are identified as vulnerable, with poverty levels further compounding their exposure to climate risks.

The speed of glacial retreat has accelerated sharply over the past five decades. Data indicates that glaciers in the Karakoram and surrounding ranges are melting at an average of 10 meters per year, while some are retreating much faster. Larger glaciers such as Siachen and Baltoro have recorded retreat rates of up to 50–60 meters annually, signalling a dramatic shift compared to past decades.

The consequences of this trend are far-reaching. Unstable glacial lakes increase the risk of catastrophic flooding, while shrinking glaciers exacerbate water scarcity, destabilize mountain terrain, and heighten the risks of landslides and soil erosion. Climate change, rising temperatures, erratic precipitation, and reduced winter snowfall are identified as the main drivers behind this accelerating crisis.

Regional and international reports, including those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), project further temperature increases of up to 2°C in the region by the end of the century. Combined with unpredictable monsoons and extreme weather events, these changes are expected to further destabilize ecosystems and intensify vulnerabilities.

Authorities have initiated certain measures, including strengthening early warning systems and introducing risk reduction strategies. However, environmental experts stress that a more robust national response is urgently required. Sustainable water management, stronger climate adaptation policies, and international cooperation are deemed essential to mitigate the impacts of Pakistan’s rapidly melting glaciers.